The Earth’s crust holds a treasure trove of minerals, vital for everything from smartphones to wind turbines.  Your local geology holds more under your feet than you will most likely imagine… unless you are a geologist, miner, prospector, or metallurgist. Yet, the buzz of pickaxes and drill rigs exploring for these hidden riches seems muted in recent times. The question begs: where has all the investment for mineral exploration gone?

It’s true, mineral exploration spending has seen a decline in the past decade. Compared to the heady days of the early 2010s, when commodity prices soared, exploration budgets have tightened.  Usually, price begets sentiment and with $2,000 gold one would think that investors would be flocking towards producers and explorers alike.  So, where’s the beef? But to say it’s vanished entirely is painting an incomplete picture. The story here is one of shifting sands, not barren deserts.

The Green Shift: The tide is turning towards minerals critical for the green energy revolution. Lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, once niche players, are now rockstars, with demand skyrocketing fueled by electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines. Investment in exploration for these “clean energy minerals” is booming, with lithium exploration spending alone nearly doubling in the past year. This, in the face of a current slump in lithium price.  Here price and sentiment have diverged.  Weird.  Furthermore, even in the face of the “green revolution” our governing bodies and regulatory agencies can seem to pivot fast enough to provide a clear path forward.

The Risk Factor: Mineral exploration is a high-risk, high-reward game. It’s like searching for needles in a vast haystack, with most endeavors ending in dust.  I’ve heard in the past, only 1 in 100 prospects will actually find something (this might as well be 1 in 1,000 with current investment levels). This inherent risk has pushed investors towards safer bets, especially during commodity downturns. Additionally, environmental concerns and complex permitting processes further dampen enthusiasm for traditional exploration methods.  All while other countries and other ‘Super Regions’ (such as being promoted by Saudi Arabia) could easily surpass more traditional mineral rich nations and producers.

Tech to the Rescue: However, innovation is changing the game. New technologies like drone-based surveys and advanced data analysis are lowering exploration costs and increasing the odds of finding viable deposits. This is attracting renewed interest from investors, particularly in greenfield (undiscovered) areas.  Very few patches of ground haven’t seen some level of prospective interest, state-funded geologic surveys, or past exploration and diggings.  But usually, if you look more closely, these bygone districts only saw activity when the mule and shovel were the best extraction methods available.  Modern economies of scale provide the heavy lift anymore.  Perhaps it is time to re-visit these storied districts?

The Geopolitical Puzzle: The global map of mineral exploration is also being reshaped by geopolitical factors. Tensions between major economies have prompted countries to secure domestic sources of critical minerals, leading to targeted investments in exploration within their borders. This trend is likely to continue, adding a layer of complexity to the global picture.  In recent months China has restricted export of critical minerals such as graphite, Russian uranium supplies are in unsavory hands, and Kazakh well-fields lack the needed sulfuric acid to keep up in-situ recovery.  These are symptoms of coming shortfalls and supply chain issues.  Beware!

So, where has all the investment gone? It hasn’t disappeared, it’s simply undergone a metamorphosis. It’s flowing towards greener pastures, driven by the surging demand for clean energy minerals. While traditional exploration faces headwinds, technological advancements and a shift in priorities are opening new avenues for investment. The future of mineral exploration is likely to be defined by a strategic blend of technological innovation, green ambitions, and geopolitical maneuvering.  But all will be for not if local governments and permitting efforts continue to find obstruction and uninspired political maneuvering. 

The question, then, becomes not just where the investment has gone, but where it should go. A sustainable future demands responsible and efficient exploration practices, coupled with investments in recycling and resource substitution. The battery of today will NOT be the battery of the future.  And the coveted energy source of now will inevitably turn more nuclear over time.  Finding the right balance between meeting our mineral needs and protecting the environment will be the true test for the future of mineral exploration.  And as past sins continue to the poster child for how not to mine, these same deposits and districts hold the key for future, sustainable extraction.  Only through modern mining can we properly clean up the past wrongs.  Taxing your way into reclamation is the most inefficient use of tax-payer funds when that same populous needs the minerals locked up in fought-over, legacy mining areas.  The only reason the ski bunnies of today are able to easily access Colorado slopes is due, quite literally, because of mine roads carved into some of the steepest terrain within the North American cordillera.

This post, of course, merely scratches the surface of a complex and evolving issue. Further research into specific regions, policy issues, mineral districts, and technological advancements can paint a more nuanced picture of where the investment is heading and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.  But one take way from this is clear: we need to get out of our own way!