Keep calm and carry (trade) on.

That’s not just a clever twist on the wartime motto—it’s the underlying rhythm pulsing through the uranium market in 2025. After a bumpy start to the year, uranium equities have staged a powerful comeback, and beneath the surface, a quiet storm of structural strength is gathering force.

Equities on the Rise (But Still Under the Radar)

Uranium equities have roared back with a +19% rally in just the last month, shrugging off early-year blues that had developers and producers down double digits. Volatility? High. Opportunity? Even higher. With short positions still elevated and valuations near beginning-of-cycle lows, there’s room for the sector to stretch its legs—and maybe even break into a sprint.

Spot Price: From Slump to Springboard

March 17 marked a 550-day low in spot uranium prices—$63.45/lb U₃O₈—a dip driven by buyer hesitation, tariff jitters, and forced sales. But that floor didn’t hold for long. Since then, spot has rebounded to over $70/lb, buoyed by increased buying and renewed confidence. This rebound, crucially, isn’t yet baked into equity prices, which still lag behind the long-term value curve.

The Carry Trade Carries On

Traders have become the unexpected stewards of spot market stability. Nearly half of all 2025 spot purchases have flowed through carry trades, with volumes hitting an annualized pace of 10 million pounds—a level not seen in recent memory. With a carry-trade break-even hovering around $71-72/lb, we’re seeing a quasi-price floor being established. Not exactly moonshot material, but it’s laying down ballast for a more stable ascent.

Meanwhile, utilities—those careful stewards of long-term supply—are back sniffing around spot levels, now more inclined to engage directly or lock in carry agreements. Their 2025 spot volumes have already reached 75% of last year’s total, and it’s only May.

Term Market: Pressure Building Below the Surface

Behind the scenes, the term market is coiling like a spring:

Demand is rising from reactor restarts, life extensions, and China’s unrelenting nuclear expansion.

Primary supply remains fragile, hobbled by geopolitical entanglements, permitting delays, and production shortfalls.

Secondary supply is thinning, with inventories drifting toward the bottom of target ranges.

Incentive prices are creeping higher, as developers hold back and majors like Cameco stay disciplined.

The contracting cycle is behind the curve, with new deals failing to keep pace with burn-up rates.

With term prices hovering around $80/lb for the better part of a year, the stage is set. What we’re waiting on is the spark: utility RFPs, geopolitical détente, or simply a market realization that “wait and see” is no longer an option.

A Sector Poised, Not Paused

If uranium has a habit, it’s this: sitting quietly for a while… and then surging when no one’s looking. And this year? We’re due. With traders providing liquidity, utilities cautiously re-engaging, and term fundamentals tightening, we may just be at the foothills of the next breakout.

So, keep calm. Carry trade on. And don’t blink—because the next leg up might just be the one that redefines the cycle.