By Mark Travis, CPG | June 23, 2025
President, Arkenstone Exploration

“In every supply chain lies a seam. And when pressure builds, the whole system can slip.”

In March, the cobalt market trembled.
In June, it roared.

What began as a localized export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—the world’s undisputed cobalt kingpin—has now widened into a seven-month disruption with no clear end in sight. Prices have surged. IPOs have crumbled. Investors are watching from the edge of their seats. And somewhere in the hills of Idaho, Alaska, or northern Quebec… a junior explorer is unrolling a map and whispering: Now is the time.

Let’s step back and trace the arc—from instability to opportunity—and explore what it means for the U.S., for the mining sector, and for the future of secure, ethical critical minerals.

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Part I: March Madness – When the Ban First Dropped

The story began in February 2025, when the DRC suspended cobalt concentrate exports. Officials cited oversupply and weak EV demand as justification—though insiders speculated on broader motivations, from domestic processing ambitions to geopolitical posturing.

By mid-March, chaos was rippling through the global cobalt chain:

• Eurasian Resources Group declared force majeure at Metalkol.
• Cobalt prices hit $12.25/lb in Europe, climbing nearly 12% in China.
• Analysts buzzed about “structural fragility” in a market too dependent on one country’s copper byproduct stream.

I wrote then that this disruption was a “wake-up call” for domestic mining, a rare window where investors, policymakers, and industry leaders might finally align around the urgent need for U.S.-based production.

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Part II: June Reverb – The Shock That Keeps On Shaking

Now, the DRC has extended the ban by another three months—pushing the total supply interruption to over half a year, and pulling an estimated 100,000 tonnes of cobalt off the global market.

The price reaction was swift and sharp:

• Cobalt futures on China’s Wuxi Exchange surged 9% overnight to $35.34/kg.
• Cobalt sulphate—critical to EV battery cathodes—has rebounded 80% from January lows.
• Glencore, the world’s #2 cobalt producer, followed ERG in declaring force majeure.
• Cobalt Holdings scrapped its anticipated $230M London IPO, spooked by instability.

While CMOC claims its Congo-based operations remain steady, the market at large is anything but.

Behind the headlines, a deeper current is pulling: the realization that this isn’t a one-time hiccup—it’s a systemic vulnerability. One that threatens the clean energy transition at its roots.

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Part III: The U.S. Response – Still Waiting for the Drill to Turn

So here’s the paradox.

We know the problem: too much cobalt comes from too few jurisdictions.
We know the stakes: EVs, grid storage, military tech, even aerospace all need cobalt.
And we know the solution: develop domestic resources.

Yet exploration companies still face:

• Multi-year permitting timelines
• Inconsistent federal support
• Lack of processing capacity
• Skeptical capital markets burned by previous busts

The opportunity is clear, but the runway is short. If the U.S. wants to seize this moment, we need policy shifts, capital infusions, and a cultural reawakening that mining matters.

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Part IV: From Fragility to Fortitude – What Comes Next

The cobalt crisis of 2025 is more than a spike in futures charts. It’s a stress test of global supply chains, and a preview of coming attractions for lithium, rare earths, and beyond.

This is the inflection point where:

• Domestic juniors can shine with the right support and strategy
• Investors can reposition toward hard assets with real leverage
• Governments can double down on permitting reform and resilient infrastructure

Cobalt is the canary—but it’s singing a warning in a mine shaft lined with copper, nickel, lithium, and rare earths.

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Final Thoughts: The Claim is Staked—Will We Act?

As a geologist, I’ve seen firsthand how resource trends bend history.
As a project manager, I’ve wrestled with the real costs of getting a mine off the ground.
And as someone who believes in the long arc of human progress, I see cobalt not as a crisis, but a catalyst.

A catalyst to return to the rock, to the root, to the real work of supplying a world in transition.

Let’s not miss this window. Let’s dig deeper—literally and figuratively—into our own potential.

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Mark Travis is a Certified Professional Geologist and President of Arkenstone Exploration. He believes in building resource resilience from the ground up, and writes frequently on the intersection of exploration, policy, and the human spirit.

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