
Prologue: A Question I Couldn’t Shake Loose
Every so often, a question settles into the back of a geologist’s mind like a pebble in a boot.
No matter how far you walk, you feel it.
For me, that pebble was this:
If one pound of uranium holds roughly three million times more energy than a pound of coal…
why do they trade at the same order of magnitude in price?
Why is uranium an $80/lb commodity when, energetically, it behaves like bottled lightning?
I expected the answer to be complicated.
The truth was deeper — and far more astonishing — than I imagined.
This essay is the story of following that question all the way down to the bedrock…
and discovering a fault line in the global economy waiting to slip.
I. Uranium vs. Coal: A Tale of Two Fuels
Let’s start with the raw physics — no jargon, no reactor-speak, just simple energy content.
Coal:
About 10,000 BTU per pound.
Uranium (real-world reactor fuel):
About 1.6 billion BTU per pound.
Uranium (full-U235 fission theoretical):
About 37 billion BTU per pound.
To keep the math anchored:
👉 1 pound of uranium ≈ 3,000,000 pounds of coal
👉 or roughly 1,500 short tons
This is not a rounding error.
It is the largest energy-density spread in the history of civilization.
Yet…
Coal trades at $50–$100 per ton.
Uranium trades at ~$80 per pound.
The more I turned the numbers over, the more absurd the comparison became.
II. The First Shock: Uranium’s “Heat Parity” Price Isn’t $100 — It’s Thousands
To calculate uranium’s “true value,” let’s ask a simple, childlike question:
“If you priced uranium the same way you price coal — purely by heat content — what would it be worth?”
Answer:
- In today’s reactors, uranium should be worth $3,000–$8,000 per pound.
- In theoretical full-fission terms, it reaches $100,000–$500,000 per pound.
Those are not typos.
Those aren’t dreams.
Those are physics.
So how on Earth is uranium $80/lb?
Because markets don’t trade physics — they trade logistics, regulation, and psychology.
That realization led me to the second, even deeper shock.
III. The Second Shock: Even at $300–$1,000/lb, Nuclear Power Costs Stay Flat
This was the moment the ground shifted under my feet.
You can triple or quadruple the price of uranium…
…and the cost of nuclear electricity barely moves.
Why?
Because nuclear plants use so little fuel.
A single fuel pellet the size of your fingertip holds the same energy as a ton of coal.
A single pound of uranium powers thousands of homes for a year.
Fuel is a tiny slice of a reactor’s operating cost.
Raising uranium from $80 to $300 or even $1,000 moves the needle only from ½ cent per kWh to maybe 2 cents per kWh in fuel cost.
Let that sink in:
Nuclear energy is so potent that even a 10× or 20× rise in uranium price barely budges the electric bill.
This is not just an economic curiosity — it is a macroeconomic revelation.
IV. The Third Shock: A World Built on Cheap Nuclear Energy Floats, Not Sinks
If uranium rises to its real value — $300 fuel-parity or even $3,000 physics-parity — something extraordinary happens:
Energy becomes inexpensive, predictable, and abundant.
Imagine:
- No volatility from gas pipelines.
- No coal supply crunches.
- No weather-dependent intermittency.
- No geopolitical chokeholds.
- No fragile grids.
- No spiraling power costs.
Nuclear offers:
- Ultra-cheap fuel
- Ultra-long asset life
- Ultra-stable output
When energy becomes cheap and constant, everything else in the economy becomes lighter:
- Manufacturing costs drop
- Mining costs drop
- Transportation costs drop
- Food production costs drop
- Inflation pressure eases
- Economic growth accelerates
It is the closest thing to a “cheat code” for civilization we have ever found.
Sometimes you have to read the tea leaves to see the deeper reality:
Cheap uranium → cheap nuclear → cheap everything.
This isn’t geology anymore — this is political economy.
V. And Here’s the Punchline: The Mining World Isn’t Ready
This is where my geologist’s boots hit the dirt.
Because if uranium is this undervalued…
if its true energy value is in the thousands per pound…
if the world is going nuclear out of necessity…
then we are standing on the threshold of a mining revolution.
At $300/lb:
Roll-fronts once considered “marginal” become prime targets.
At $500–$1,000/lb:
Low-grade sandstone horizons become company-makers.
Old ISR fields get second and third lives.
At $1,000–$3,000/lb:
Lignites, shales, metasomatic systems, and granites — today written off as waste — become the Athabasca Basins of 2075.
What we call “low grade” today will be considered “bonanza” tomorrow.
We are in the early-early-early oil age of uranium.
Rockefeller-level early.
“Horse-drawn rigs in Pennsylvania” early.
The only reason the world isn’t acting like it is early?
Because we are pricing uranium as if it is coal.
And it is not coal.
It is energy compressed into a mineral soul.
VI. The New Frontier: Energy Abundance and Geologic Renaissance
What happens when:
- reactors get smaller
- regulations get smarter
- fuel cycles get closed
- enrichment expands
- nations seek energy independence
- grids bend under AI and electrification…
…and uranium prices finally catch up?
A renaissance.
A rebirth.
A new era where exploration geologists walk onto projects long dismissed as “uneconomic” — and suddenly see opportunity glowing like desert varnish at sunset.
We will re-drill old deposits.
We will re-map old roll fronts.
We will re-model old sandstone basins.
We will re-evaluate “waste” with wiser eyes.
Because the future doesn’t belong to high-grade deposits.
The future belongs to scale.
VII. Conclusion: The Rock Is Mighty — The Market Just Forgot
Uranium is not an $80 commodity pretending to be a fuel.
It is a world-changing energy metal priced as if it were an afterthought.
Physics says it should be thousands per pound.
Economics says it can easily support hundreds per pound.
Civilization says we desperately need it.
Geology says we are barely scratching the surface.
And the exploration frontier — the one that I and many others walk every day — is on the cusp of rediscovery.
The rock is mighty.
The world just hasn’t remembered it yet.
But it will.
And when it does, the next century of energy, mining, geopolitics, and human flourishing may well be written in the quiet glow of uranium’s still-untapped power.




















